Two Kona Low storms hit at the worst possible moment — peak spring break. Here's what the numbers actually say, what's noise and what's signal, and what luxury operators should be doing right now.
01 — The Headlines
Two Kona Low storms struck Hawaii on March 10–15 and March 19–24, landing directly on top of spring break — the highest-demand window of the month. DBEDT estimated more than $300 million in lost tourism revenue. Total arrivals fell 1.7% to 888,349. Spending dropped 1.6% to $1.96 billion. Average length of stay shortened from 8.43 to 8.14 days. The statewide daily visitor census fell 5.1% to 233,203.
The instinct to treat March as a warning sign is understandable. But the context matters: YTD through March, visitor spending is up 9.0% to $6.12 billion and arrivals are up 3.8% to 2.55 million. February delivered a 10.3% spending surge that provides meaningful cushion. March was a weather event, not a trend reversal.
02 — The Island Story
The most significant pattern in March data is the widening performance gap between Hawaii's four island markets. Oahu and Maui RevPAR fell. Hawaii Island and Kauai both rose. This is not a one-month anomaly — it tracks the full Q1 YTD pattern and represents a structural shift worth watching closely.
RevPAR fell 2.0% to $212. Waikiki down 1.8% to $198. YTD Oahu RevPAR is down 2.5%. Group and convention business is underperforming. The soft patch predates March and is not storm-related — this is a structural issue requiring active pipeline management.
Occupancy ticked up 0.3 pts to 68.0% — but ADR fell 2.8% to $561 and RevPAR dropped 2.4% to $381. YTD Maui ADR is $556 vs. $584 in 2025. Lahaina/Kaanapali/Kapalua is the weakest submarket at $294 RevPAR. Q2 airlift to Kahului is up 16.9% — demand is not the constraint. Rate confidence is.
ADR up 7.2% to $485. RevPAR up 3.5% to $355. The Kohala Coast is the standout: ADR of $689, up 10.4%, RevPAR of $505, up 5.6%. YTD Kohala Coast RevPAR up 8.5%. These are not incremental gains — the island's luxury product is capturing rate at a pace that Wailea and Kaanapali are not.
RevPAR up 3.6% to $332. ADR up 3.7% to $433. YTD RevPAR up 2.8%. Q2 Lihue air capacity is up 15.7% — demand support is strong. Operators are in a position to push rate rather than match the market. This is the moment to build rate integrity, not concede it.
"The islands historically treated as secondary markets — Hawaii Island and Kauai — are consistently outperforming the two primary markets. For ownership groups with assets on the Neighbor Islands, this is the moment to lean into rate strategy. For Oahu properties, the group pipeline conversation needs to happen now, not in Q3."
— Andy Evers, Founder, Aloha Hospitality Advisors03 — Segment Performance
The segment data from March reinforces a pattern that has been building throughout 2025 and into 2026: the market is rewarding the top and penalizing the middle. Luxury ADR rose 2.8% to $745. Upper Upscale was the strongest overall performer with RevPAR up 1.9%. But Upscale ADR fell 4.8% and RevPAR dropped 6.5%. Upper Midscale, Midscale, and Economy all posted meaningful declines.
| Segment | Occupancy | Occ. Change | ADR | ADR Change | RevPAR | RevPAR Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxury | 69.3% | −2.8 pts | $745 | +2.8% | $517 | −1.2% |
| Upper Upscale | 78.0% | +1.3 pts | $342 | +0.2% | $267 | +1.9% |
| Upscale | 71.9% | −1.3 pts | $235 | −4.8% | $169 | −6.5% |
| Upper Midscale | 72.5% | −2.3 pts | $198 | −0.4% | $143 | −3.4% |
| Midscale & Economy | 78.1% | +0.7 pts | $225 | −5.4% | $176 | −4.6% |
Source: DBEDT (STR, Inc.) | Statewide, March 2026
"Luxury ADR growth of 2.8% in a storm-disrupted month is a meaningful signal. High-net-worth travelers are not price-sensitive in the way that mid-market travelers are — and they are not being won or lost on rate. They are being won or lost on experience, authenticity, and the confidence that your property will deliver on its promise. Properties caught between Luxury and Upscale face the most strategic pressure right now. The market is not rewarding the middle."
— Andy Evers, Founder, Aloha Hospitality Advisors04 — Vacation Rental Market
The short-term rental market posted its weakest March in several years. Statewide STR demand fell 4.3% while supply contracted only 1.1% — pushing occupancy down 1.9 points to 55.6% and ADR down 4.4% to $537. The softening was most acute on Oahu, where STR demand dropped 8.1% and occupancy fell to 55.1%.
Maui County supply grew 1.7% while demand fell 5.9% — occupancy dropped 4.6 points to 56.3%. With hotel rates still well above STR rates in most markets, the gap is narrowing from the bottom up as STR operators cut rates to compete. The regulatory pressure from Bill 9 and island-wide registration requirements is beginning to show up in the supply and demand numbers.
| Market | Occupancy | Occ. Change | ADR | ADR Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State of Hawaiʻi | 55.6% | −1.9 pts | $537 | −4.4% |
| Oʻahu | 55.1% | −3.7 pts | $422 | −4.3% |
| Maui County | 56.3% | −4.6 pts | $691 | −1.5% |
| Lāhainā/Kāʻanapali/Nāpili/Kapalua | 58.4% | −1.7 pts | $856 | −5.8% |
| Hawaiʻi Island | 55.6% | +2.3 pts | $421 | −8.2% |
| Kauaʻi | 55.3% | −0.3 pts | $599 | −6.5% |
Source: DBEDT (Lighthouse Intelligence) | March 2026
"The Oahu STR market — demand down 8.1%, occupancy at 55% — is worth watching closely as a leading indicator. If that trend holds through April and May, it will begin to affect hotel demand in lower-rated channels as STR operators cut rates further to compete. For condo-hotel associations navigating Bill 9 on Maui, these softening STR metrics reinforce the urgency of developing a clear path forward before the choices narrow further."
— Andy Evers, Founder, Aloha Hospitality Advisors05 — Global Context
Despite March's storm disruption, Hawaii's Q1 2026 performance in the global context remains compelling. Hawaii led all U.S. markets in both RevPAR ($290) and ADR ($380) for Q1 2026. Miami ranked second in RevPAR at $260, San Francisco third at $204.
The global comparison is equally powerful: Maui ranked 4th in the world in Q1 RevPAR among sun-and-sea destinations at $401, behind only the Maldives, Aruba, and the Bahamas. Hawaii Island ranked 6th at $372. These are not just bragging rights — they are rate integrity data points that ownership groups and asset managers should be using in strategy conversations right now.
"Every ownership group and board I work with should have these global ranking data points in hand. When you're having a rate integrity conversation with owners who want to discount to fill rooms, the fact that Maui ranks 4th in global RevPAR is a powerful reframe. You are not competing with the Marriott down the street. You are competing with the Maldives and Aruba. Price accordingly."
— Andy Evers, Founder, Aloha Hospitality Advisors06 — Strategic Implications
Aloha Hospitality Advisors translates market intelligence into practical operational and revenue strategy for luxury and boutique properties across Hawaii. Schedule a complimentary discovery call with Andy Evers.
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"Don't let the storm headlines drive your Q2 strategy. The YTD story through March is genuinely positive. March was a disruption event with a clear, identifiable cause — not a signal that demand is softening. The operators who react to one bad weather month by pulling back on rate or cutting investment will be behind the market when April data comes in clean."
— Andy Evers, Founder, Aloha Hospitality Advisors