The Neighbor Islands ran the table in May, every one grew arrivals and RevPAR while Oahu slipped backward. Luxury is pulling away from the pack, Japan is the lone international bright spot, and summer airlift is pointed squarely at Maui, Kona, and Kauai.
01, The Big Picture
May delivered 800,554 visitors, up 3.8%, but the story is not in the arrivals headline. Average length of stay fell 10.3% to 7.60 days, meaning total visitor days actually declined 6.9%. More people came through, but fewer were on-island on any given night. Despite that, spending rose 5.3% to $1.77 billion, driven by daily spend per person climbing 13.1% to roughly $292.
The shorter-stay dynamic is worth watching. RevPAR is a function of rate and occupancy, and shorter stays chip away at occupancy even when nightly rate holds. The strategic response is to make each shorter stay worth more, through packages, experiences, and on-property spend, while setting length-of-stay rules with total-trip-cost sensitivity in mind.
But the defining pattern of May is geographic. Every Neighbor Island grew arrivals, spending, and RevPAR. Oahu did not. This is not a one-month fluke, it is a months-long shift in where domestic visitors want to go, and disproportionate Neighbor Island airlift is feeding it.
02, Island Performance
May produced a striking geographic divide. All three Neighbor Islands posted gains across arrivals, spending, and RevPAR. Maui led on volume, with arrivals up 18.4% and spending up 26.4%. Kauai delivered RevPAR growth of 9.2%. Hawaii Island grew RevPAR 7.0%, powered largely by the Kohala Coast. Oahu was the one market to move in the opposite direction, arrivals down 3.5%, spending down 6.4%, and hotel RevPAR essentially unchanged at $205.
Arrivals fell 3.5% to 450,213. Spending dropped 6.4% to $737M. RevPAR flat at $205, Waikiki at $197. The challenge is largely a demand-mix issue, Oahu depends more heavily on international, group, and repeat mainland leisure than the Neighbor Islands, and all three are currently soft. The Convention Center factor is significant and often underweighted (see below).
Arrivals up 18.4% to 231,331. Spending up 26.4%. RevPAR up 12.0% to $326 on a 7.2-point occupancy jump. West Maui led everything at +18.8% RevPAR. The recovery is real, but it is occupancy-driven. ADR was flat, and rate still runs ~8% below pre-fire levels. The rate recovery is the next chapter.
Arrivals up 5.3%. RevPAR up 7.0% to $287. The Kohala Coast is driving it, ADR up 18.4% to $597, a rate-led gain. One caveat: length of stay fell 16.2%, worth monitoring. Summer Kona airlift is up 11.5%, though search intent diverges, one to watch closely.
Arrivals up 8.0%. Spending up 9.5%. RevPAR up 9.2% to $316 on ADR up 5.1%, one of the healthiest rate-and-occupancy combinations of any market. Summer Lihue airlift is up 15.1%, the strongest of any port, and search intent is aligned. A strong summer setup.
| Market | Occupancy | Occ. Change | ADR | ADR Change | RevPAR | RevPAR Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State of Hawaiʻi | 73.5% | +2.1 pts | $345 | +2.2% | $253 | +5.3% |
| Oʻahu | 77.4% | +0.8 pts | $264 | −1.0% | $205 | +0.1% |
| Waikīkī | 78.6% | +1.5 pts | $251 | −1.0% | $197 | +1.0% |
| Maui County | 66.1% | +7.2 pts | $494 | −0.1% | $326 | +12.0% |
| Wailea | 74.8% | +2.8 pts | $665 | +0.5% | $498 | +4.4% |
| Lāhainā/Kāʻanapali/Kapalua | 64.3% | +9.1 pts | $412 | +2.0% | $265 | +18.8% |
| Island of Hawaiʻi | 67.2% | −2.7 pts | $427 | +11.4% | $287 | +7.0% |
| Kohala Coast | 67.2% | −6.2 pts | $597 | +18.4% | $401 | +8.4% |
| Kauaʻi | 77.2% | +2.8 pts | $409 | +5.1% | $316 | +9.2% |
Source: DBEDT | May 2026
The Convention Center factor: One driver of Oahu's group-business shortfall deserves more attention than it typically gets. The Hawaii Convention Center began a two-year renovation in January 2026, running on a sharply modified event schedule through 2027 with a full reopening not expected until January 2028. The construction window put an estimated 18 citywide events scheduled for 2026 and 2027 at risk, collectively representing roughly 61,000 attendees, 115,000 room nights, and $387 million in economic impact statewide. With citywide convention business largely on hold and events limited mostly to evenings and weekends, Oahu has lost a meaningful pillar of the group demand that historically filled Waikiki's larger properties midweek. This is not a demand problem Oahu operators can fully market their way out of; it is a structural gap that persists until the Center returns to full operation.
03, Segment Performance
Underneath the island stories is a clear segment divide: the upper end of the market is commanding higher rates while the middle is trading price to protect occupancy. Luxury was the only class to post real rate growth, ADR up 6.3% to $645 and RevPAR up 6.7% on flat occupancy. Upscale reduced rate (ADR down 1.6%), as did Midscale & Economy (down 2.0%), both accepting lower pricing to keep rooms filled.
On Maui the split is sharper still, the luxury class grew ADR 5.7% to $853 at flat occupancy, a rate-led gain, while the upper-upscale and upscale tier grew occupancy 9.5 points on flat rate. Luxury never discounted as hard on the way down, so it retains pricing power the mid-market now has to earn back through occupancy first. For luxury operators, the message is clear: your pricing power is back, use it.
| Segment | Occupancy | Occ. Change | ADR | ADR Change | RevPAR | RevPAR Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxury | 70.4% | +0.3 pts | $645 | +6.3% | $454 | +6.7% |
| Upper Upscale | 77.3% | +4.4 pts | $319 | +0.7% | $246 | +6.9% |
| Upscale | 68.5% | +0.0 pts | $220 | −1.6% | $151 | −1.5% |
| Upper Midscale | 73.4% | +2.0 pts | $189 | +2.0% | $139 | +4.9% |
| Midscale & Economy | 75.1% | +0.2 pts | $212 | −2.0% | $159 | −1.8% |
Source: DBEDT | Statewide, May 2026
04, Visitor Markets
The international visitor picture in May was shaped by political and economic headwinds, with one notable exception. Japan posted its strongest month of 2026: arrivals climbed 15.6% to 53,051 and spending rose 16.9%. What makes this figure especially encouraging is that forward Japan seat capacity is actually down 2.1%, so the growth reflects genuinely stronger traveler demand absorbing existing flights, rather than the effect of added lift. A soft yen has done little to slow Japanese interest, and the underlying momentum appears durable.
Canada, by contrast, has all but disappeared from the visitor mix. May arrivals of just 18,474 were nominally down only 1.1%, but that comparison flatters the reality, since May 2025 was already a badly depressed month. On a year-to-date basis Canada is off 7.0%, and forward summer seats are down 11.8%, with Calgary capacity nearly eliminated (down 63%). The causes are structural rather than cyclical: trade friction, an unfavorable exchange rate, and a documented reluctance among Canadian travelers to book U.S. destinations. A meaningful rebound before fall is unlikely.
On the domestic side, U.S. East continues to be the growth engine, arrivals up 12.5% and spending $321 per day, well above the $286 from U.S. West. This build looks structural, not seasonal, with forward East seats up 8.1%.
| Market | Arrivals | YoY Change | Spending | YoY Change | Daily Spend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. West | 432,267 | +5.1% | $905M | +8.8% | $286 |
| U.S. East | 233,432 | +12.5% | $611M | +13.0% | $321 |
| Japan | 53,051 | +15.6% | $79M | +16.9% | $248 |
| Canada | 18,474 | −1.1% | $39M | −2.0% | $234 |
| All Other Markets | 58,234 | −29.9% | $139M | −31.6% | $273 |
Source: DBEDT | May 2026 · "All Other Markets" includes Korea, Oceania, and Europe
The International Picture: Forward seats are down across every overseas market, including Canada, Japan, Korea, and Oceania. The international reacceleration many penciled in for 2026 is not materializing. Domestic demand, led by U.S. East, is carrying the entire state right now.
05, Summer Airlift Outlook
The forward air capacity picture is the strongest domestic setup of the entire recovery, and it is decisively lopsided toward the Neighbor Islands. June through August seats are up 5.1% overall and 7.7% domestic. By port of entry, the growth concentrates where demand is already heading: Kahului up 12.1%, Kona up 11.5%, and Lihue up 15.1%, versus Honolulu up just 3.7%.
The route-level detail reinforces the trend. Dallas total capacity is up 48.4%, San Francisco up 18.1%, San Diego up 11.5%, and Los Angeles up 9.5%. In short, the capacity needed to support a strong Maui, Kona, and Kauai summer is already scheduled and confirmed. Meanwhile, every international market continues to contract, Canada down 11.8%, Korea down 25.9%, and Oceania down 23.6%.
One caution on rate: Forward domestic seats are up 7.7% while May arrivals grew only 3.8% and visitor days actually fell. When airlines add seats faster than passengers materialize, promotions often follow, which is good for arrival counts but a potential drag on rate if they pull last-minute, price-led bookings. Watch booking pace closely heading into summer.
06, Strategic Implications
Aloha Hospitality Advisors translates market intelligence into practical operational and revenue strategy for luxury and boutique properties across Hawaii. Schedule a complimentary discovery call.
Book a Discovery Call